Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Kerala Assembly Elections 2016. Who (which party / front) will win?

With the arrival of the new year 2016, many political parties in Kerala state where elections to the state legislative assembly are to be held, are busy making plans to go to the voters once again with many false promises. Many political leaders who usually approach the voters only once in 5 years during the election seasons to beg for their verdicts are preparing new attractive masks and practising new body languages postures and strategies to face the people. And some leaders and parties whose only aim is power and positions are assessing the winning chances of the three fronts in the state to switch their loyalties by jumping to those sides in the eleventh hour.

The state of Kerala which was ruled either by the Congress led United Democratic Front (UDF) or the CPI(M) led Left Democratic Front all these years, have one more newly-entered third front in the electoral battle field which is to be headed by the BJP and Vellappally Nateshan's BDJS which is striving to gather some disgruntled small parties and leaders whom they may offer handsome rewards and the centre's favour and friendship.

Even though political analysers rule out any chances of the third front's entry in to the state's legislative assembly, the newly appointed head of the state BJP, Kummanam Rajashekharan who is projected as a hard liner extremist in implementing Hindutva ideology and was surprisingly made president by the party's national president and prime minister considering only this qualification, side lining the views and wishes of many experienced, seasoned and dedicated party workers, has predicted that the BJP would form the government in Kerala after the 2016 assembly polls. But the people of the state do not seem to be bothered about his boastings.

On the other hand according to the people's opinion, SNDP general secretary Vellappally Nateshan who has floated a new political party with the dream of gathering all the Hindus under one umbrella, with the only intention of acquiring political power in the state (and also a berth in the central cabinet) and escaping any punitive actions against many of the criminal cases in which he is allegedly involved, that have been overlooked by both these fronts that ruled due to his communal influence.

But as BDJS and BJP could not succeed to get the support of other Hindu groups and organizations like Nair Service Society (NSS) another powerful caste-based organization in Kerala that give weightage to the secular values, and many of the leaders and members in SNDP objected to this new idea of forming third front together with RSS and its allied gropus, the scene has completely changed and Vellappally nateshan has admitted failure by announcing his readiness to hold talks with CPIM party leaders yesterday.

As far as Kerala is concerned, though most people have their own religions and beliefs, the majority of the population gives good weightage to secularism. The people encouraging and cooperating with the people of other religions in everything is a common and ordinary sight in Kerala. And the beauty of the state is that the people of the state will not tolerate any attempt by any communal forces that try to sow divisive seeds. 

The main reason of the ruling UDF to receive a 'shock treatment' in the recent local body elections was because of the 'soft stand' of some of the Congress leaders particularly CM Oommen Chandy's and HM Ramesh Chennithala to Vellappally's new idea of joining hands with 'sangh parivar' and forming new political party that can be a threat to the secular fabircs of Kerala. Only KPCC President V M Sudheeran was seen leading a lone one-man-fight against Vellappally's family venture. Bar bribery case and other scams played only a very minor role that affected adversely in the outcome of the polls. And the only thing that increased the votes of the LDF candidates is because of the 'stern stand' of all the Communist party leaders particularly V S Achuthanandan and Pinarayi Vijayan against the 'sangh pariwar' and the burning issues like the 'beef row'. This is a small warning sign that the people though they don't like corruptions, they may forgive the thieves, but they cannot tolerate even small amount of 'divisiveness'..!

Every party will have some ardent followers and loyal cadres. But no party can secure a victory in any elections with the votes of their own party members or workers. Giving the real verdict is vested with the neutral minded apolitical people who generally do not have any permanent inclination to any political parties or leaders. In the present scenario as of now, the wind appears in favour of the LDF because the secular-minded people believe that only the CPI(M) led left has the willpower to withstand the communal forces and their fascist agenda. 

Who (which party) will win the assembly elections in 2016 and form the government is not predictable as of now. There are many factors that may decide the poll results. Changing of allies, splits of small parties, judgements in some pending inquiries and cases etc. may all influence the election results. There are many factors that act as 'strengths' and 'weakness' to both the fronts. Some incidenets or happenings can change the fate of the 3rd front which is now not active. 

Positive Strengths of UDF:

1. Oommen Chandy is personally a good person to be the CM with his soft-
spoken' nature and over all developmental plans.

2. KPCC President V M Sudheeran's clean image with good and daring stands on many issues like 'liquor ban', party discipline, national intolerance, religious and communal harmony etc.

3. There is a common feeling among the people that only UDF can bring some fast development.

Negative weakness of UDF:

1. Corruption and scams in every field is very high during UDF rule. 

2. Cheap and dirty infighting and group-war of some Congress leaders. Particularly that of some 'I' group members like Ramesh Chennithala and K Sudhakaran and excluding leaders like K Muraleedharan, Adoor Prakash etc.

3. Allocation of some portfolios to some partner parties who entrust them with unsuitable persons. Example: By giving education portfolio to Abdu Rabb has proved that he can also draw back our education system.

4. Inability to take stern stand and actions against the fascists, corrupt and criminals.

5. Less discipline and obedience in the party. The recent 'boycott' of Mullappally Ramachandran to KPCC Chief's rally is an open challenge to the people who voted for him.

Positive Strengths of LDF:

1. Many people think that the communists only can prevent the fascist powers from spewing their communal venom in the community. It is the need of the hour.

2. Less corruption comparatively. 

3. More obedience and discipline in the party and cadres to the leaderships.

Negative weakness of LDF:

1. There is a common feeling that the communists are against development.

2. The frequent strikes and bundhs held by the communists give a lot of inconveniences to the public. Hence they are less preferred.

3. The high handedness and arrognaces of even chotta leaders. The way they take undue advantages of the rule and show disrespect other parties. 

4. The high handedness and arrogant goonda attitude of head load and other coolies associate with LDF. Collection of 'Nokku Kooly' etc.

It is high time for all the parties concerned to correct the negative things and create confidence and try to win more seats in the ensuing assembly polls. If anyone is not ready to make corrections or serve selflessly, he/she should quit to politics and better do some other works.


  1. A much detailed article. Quite informative! Thanks for sharing.

    1. Actually it is a biased report. The author may be a supoprter of 'A' group or kerala cm. In congress there are 2 groups. A group headed by CM and 'I' group headed by Ramesh chennithala. Here he see cm as good leader and ramesh chennithala as as a problem. But actually it's the other way around.

  2. Fantastic blog !! Keep it up, To get latest
    Ramesh Chennithala news check it. Thank you, have a great day ahead.


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