Asianet News - C FORE Kerala Pre-Poll Survey Results 2021

2021 Kerala Assembly Election dates are not yet declared. But all political parties are trying various strategies to secure maximum seats in the polls and grab power. Even though the ruling LDF government is plunged in neck-deep corruptions, inefficiency and all sorts of malpractices, C M Pinarayi Vijayan and team seem to be very confident of getting comfortable seats to rule Kerala state once again.

At the same time, for the Congress led UDF, it is a life and death game. If they fail to win maximum seats and form the government this time, it will be a fatal blow not only to the Indian National Congress party, but to all the parties in the front that may even affect their survival.  

And for the BJP, it is a golden chance to fish from the muddy water and to put a solid political base by winning some seats in Kerala. BJP's advancement in Kerala is considered as a dangerous move for the minorities particularly the Muslims.

There are also news and speculations about the 'secret deal' between the CPI(M) and the BJP to help one another to destroy the Congress party completely.

The entry of new popular political parties like 'Twenty20 party' and 'One India One Pension' (OIOP) will be a threat to all the three fronts in this elections, particularly to the UDF.

Though nothing is predictable at the moment, everyone is eager to know the current trends and the latest survey results for a temporary relief.

The first pre poll survey is conducted by 'Asianet news and C Fore' with regard to the Kerala Assembly Election 2021. In this survey the verdict is in favour of the ruling Pinarayi Vijayan government. Here are the survey results in a nutshell. 

* The survey predicts the possibility of LDF coming back to power with the advantage it may get in the Assembly segments of Southern Kerala.

* The 'free food kits' being supplied to all households and the hiked welfare pensions are the most liked schemes of this government.

* Majority of the people feel Pinarayi Vijayan as the most preferred candidate to be the Chief Minister with 39% votes, followed by Oommen Chandy with 18% votes. 9% of the survey participants preferred Shashi Tharoor as the CM candidates and 7% opted K K Sailaja. Only 6% of the participants voted for Ramesh Chennithala and 5% K Surendran.

* The survey predicts that BJP will not make any impressive improvement in this election as of now. 

Pala by-election on 23 September, 2019: Who / which party will win?

When there are 6 assembly constituencies in Kerala without a member to represent in the legislative assembly, the announcement of the election commission to hold the by-election to Pala constituency in Kottayam district of Kerala at a separate date before the others has already received criticisms from many people and political leaders. The election commission of India which received wide reproval for its biased stand in the past parliament elections appears to be not bothered about all these allegations. Anyhow as per the decisions of some and the announcements of the EC, the voting to Pala assembly constituency will be held on September 23rd 2019 and the counting of votes will be done on September 27th and the results will be declared on the same day.

Pala bypoll 2019 became necessitated due to the demise of its one and only MLA K M Mani who was its member since the formation of the constituency in 1965 and thereafter until his death in 2019. Though Pala constituency is a strong hold of Kerala Congress (M), the previous victory of K M Many was with a comparatively smaller margin. 

Who (which party) will win in Pala in this election is a million dollar question at this juncture. People are finding it difficult to make their guesswork or express their opinions due to many factors now, as political atmosphere is in a muddled state in Pala. Probably bypoll to Pala may be one of the most interesting byelections in 2019!

The war for chairman's position within the Kerala Congress (M) by Jose K Mani and P J Joseph factions is the biggest challenge to that party in particular and to the UDF in general. If Nisha Jose is announced by Jose K Many, there are chances for P J Joseph to clash and field another candidate. Even this conflict will definitely affect the chances of the the UDF which otherwise can create and encash the K M Mani sympathy wave for a colourful victory.

Another factor that will affect adversely the UDF is the divided stands by the Congress leaders like Sasi Tharoor M P and the attacks by other leaders like K Muraleedharan M P. Disobedience of the leaders to the authority is a major challenge for the party that will distance some nuetral voters from it.

The LDF's Mani C Kappen is an accepted candidate who proved his might in the previous assembly poll battle by reducing considerably the vote margin of K M Mani who was like an undisputed titan. But as the present government by Pinarayi Vijayan has been proving to be a very big failure mainly due to the highhandedness of the police and DYFI/SFI, most of the people are waiting eagerly to see the end of the LDF government in Kerala.

The above conditions will work favourably for the NDA who otherwise has lesser chance to bag a victory in a place like Pala. The candidature of P C Thomas who is accustomed to Pala, the support of P C George who also has considerable hold on Pala (though his stand not predictable) and the huge campaigns of state and national goliaths, etc may make it difficult for predicting the outcome of this election.